Congressman Charlie Dent (R-15) of the Lehigh Valley is featured in a Sunday Washington Post article examining the choices he faces as a moderate Republican in a swing district facing a tough race in 2008. The decisions he makes regarding Iraq will determine if he is re-elected or not. The Post article is about the tough choices all Republican members of Congress must grapple with as opposition to the war across the nation grows. How will they defend their support of the President's policies?
The war in Iraq is obviously going to be the number one issue, far and away, over everything else in 2008. This issue will define who wins and who loses the Presidency and control of Congress. Charlie Dent is in his second term in an area which has a significant Democratic registration. He has had weak opposition in both races resulting in his sitting in an office on Capitol Hill. His is a very vulnerable seat in a state where four Republican Congresspersons (three men and one woman) lost their seats last year.
Rumors abound that State Senator Lisa Boscola will run against Dent in 2008 making him very vulnerable. His choices regarding Iraq policy, like everyone else running in '08, will determine his fate. In spite of this Dent isn't going completely against the President's plan for escalating the conflict. Treading a middle area similar to that of fellow Keystone stater Jim Gerlach (another vulnerable seat), Dent is trying to play both sides.
"I think we have the obligation to process this a little bit," he said carefully. "But I still think the president has to make a case, a strong case. He's got a lot of selling left to do."
The Congressman admits the President has not told the nation what the mission for these troops is. Absent a clearly defined mission and a clear strategy, the plan is doomed to failure and will sink the likes of Charlie Dent, Jim Gerlach, John McCain and others with it.
Democrats need to field a stronger candidate in 2008. Charlie Dertinger was a nice guy with very little money and a great campaign staff but he also didn't come out strongly against the war. Outspent $100-$1 Dertinger still received 47% of the vote. He gained the nomination through a primary election write-in effort and so got a very late start on fundraising. Money never seemed to be a high priority for the candidate though and they built a strong grassroots effort through campaign manager Rob Hopkins.
Sen. Boscola meanwhile won re-election with around 70% of the vote. 2008 is her off cycle year and she can run for Congress without jeopardizing her seat in Harrisburg. She also lives in the district which is more than 2004 candidate Joe Driscoll could say. His blatant carpetbagging campaign was doomed from the beginning.
I lamented the weak efforts in this district by Democrats by calling the 15th one of my five worst efforts in the Commonwealth for 2006. Democrats there have failed to put forward good, strong candidates and provided them with support and resources. Waiting until after the primary to see which write-in candidate wins and then not raising any money for them is a recipe for defeat and Charlie Dent has been the beneficiary of this largesse.
Democratic leaders in the Lehigh Valley have low hanging fruit in the Dent seat if they'll only recruit someone early and begin supporting their candidate. There's no reason to have a Republican representing this district, especially one who is vulnerable on the Iraq issue. 2008 beckons.
Why is it so easy for you to see the 15th for what it is, yet the politicos here in the valley can't
Posted by: chris casey | January 15, 2007 at 08:56 AM
Good question Chris. Maybe it takes someone with no vested interest?
Posted by: John Morgan | January 15, 2007 at 11:09 AM