Baseball Predictions

I'm a diehard Phillies fan, always have.  At the dawn of this season, looking at the forlorn pitching staff I boldly predicted a third place finish behind the Mets and Braves.  Jimmy Rollins had it right, I was wrong.  J Roll said they were the team to beat and he did it by proceeding to have a year unlike any any major leaguer has ever had.  Listening to today's game on the radio while I was out scouting kayaking locations was thrilling.  I used to have Sunday season tickets and thought about how I'd have been there had I kept them (politics was getting in the way of too many games).

The crowd was electric, cheered their hearts out and exploded when the New York loss became official.  My cell phone rang right as Rollins got the big hit.  What to do?  I answered but couldn't say anything over the radio.  Thankfully the caller understood.

It's been fourteen years since the last Phils pennant so these days are cherished.  This is one prediction I'm glad I flubbed.

Comments

[tyler]

congrats on the phillies...

but being from Pittsburgh, the baseball season ends around here around mid may when the pirates become mathmatically eliminated from contention.

15 years of losing seasons and counting...

[John Morgan]

It lasts until May?

[Kirk Wentzel]

Baseball??? Baseball....oh yes the game with the hoops played on ice right!

[tyler]

John, its not over yet...the bats came to life in game two (pitching didn't).

I';m not counting the Phillies out yet.

[John Morgan]

Their pitching has been the achilles heel all year. How on earth do they get shut down by no name pitchers like Francis and Morales though?

Losing both home games in a best of five set is a disaster. Now Jamie Moyer has to pitch his off speed stuff in a park where the thin air doesn't let it flutter around. It doesn't look good, but I thought that when they seven out with seventeen to play too.

[tyler]

Your best chance is in the thin air...your bats should save you...i cant imagine Howard, Ultey and Rollins going 0-11 like they did the first game.

Rollins had a great game two...if the pitching fails, i can see the phils winning a shoot out.

[John Morgan]

This lineup is too potent, you'd think, to be shut down by no name pitchers as already happened. These guys weren't exactly Beckett, Pedro, Johann Santana, Clemens, etc.

I expect some real shootouts in Colorado, provided the series extends past the third game. I wonder if Hamels and Kendrick, being young, lost their focus. I think you can bet it won't happen again, especially with Cole Hamels.

Hopefully we'll never see Adam eaton in a Phils uniform again. It's uncanny the relationship with Andy Ashby, another failure for whom Eaton was traded.

[tyler]

Slow day...

And since this is the only baseball thread I've seen recently.

With Bonds now getting indicted, I NOW think A-Rod has a chance to break the home run record. And the only reason being is that I dont think any AL team will bring Barry in as DH.

If Bonds would have been picked up, he would have hit another 20 or so for the next few years and put the record completely out of reach.

A-Rod is a baseball machine and more importantly, if he is to be believed, completely natural. Which means his body will do what other baseball machines like Ruth and Aaron would have done...start to break down in their late thirties and become shells of their former selves by 42 or 43. Which means AROD had about 6 more years (injury free) to approach the record before he hits..say 38 and he loses his mojo. Timing starts to slip, power diminishes, hand eye isnt what it used to be...

And if Bonds would have kept playing...hr here...hr there...Arod wouldnt be able to catch up. Plus, the mental toll that comes with chasing the record would be mind blowing. What Bonds had going for him is the uncanny ability to not give a crap about anybody else or anything. He tuned it all out. Roger Maris's hair was falling out during his race for Ruth's record. Bonds? He laughed at everyone and just kept swinging away while his head swelled up like a balloon. The thing against AROD breaking the record is his ability to not be mentally tough. He wilts like a wet napkin in the post season and it took him weeks to hit #500. Imagine how long it will take him to hit #600, #700 and then #763.

Time will tell.

As for the single season home run record...I cant see that one getting touched in our lifetime. Or the next.

Sure, Maris's record fell. But if you look at who it fell to...juicers...it really emphasizes my point.

It stayed until Mark Maguire, a home run hitting kind of guy, decided to juice up. And he hit 70.
Then Barry (a 400hr 400 stolen base guy before ever using the juice) one of the best hitters EVER decides he's mad at the attention Maguire got...and the games best player takes the worlds best juice...and presto...73 in a season.

Juicing alone wont get you anywhere...you need the talent behind it. Pirate catcher Ronny Palino could inject HGH in the batter's box before each pitch and he wouldnt be one half the player natural Barry was.

Barry was the best player taking the best juice. Unless the next 'once in a lifetime player'...and has to be a home run hitter to boot...comes along and juices for all its worth under the scrutiny of the league, under the scrutiny of the fans, under the scrutiny of the tests...73 will be around for quite some time.

like i said, slow day and this barry being in the news got me thinking.

have a great weekend :)

[John Morgan]

I was actually thinking about an article called "Stocks and Bonds" about Barry and the market fluctuations. You beat me to it. I've been too busy today to get much written.

I agree totally with your analysis.

[tyler]

I'll post it onto that thread...maybe generate some feedback, stir up some conversation on what for me has been a pretty slow day

have a great weekend :)

[John Morgan]

I decided to keep that baseball related.